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I’m on Buffalo and the ‘OVER’ tonight. While I realize the Bills have played a soft schedule, they have been dominant nevertheless On defense they’ve allowed the fewest points, yards, and passing yards (quite a trifecta) including two shutouts.  The Bills have scored 40, 43, and 35-points in their last three games and now face a defense that has allowed 6.9 yards per play, worst in the NFL.  Patrick Mahomes certainly makes things happen, but it’s not always positive. He has thrown five interceptions already this year after hurling just six all of last year and five in 2019.  Here’s how bad the Kansas City defense has been.  In four games they’ve only seen the opposing punter on the field seven times!  I mean Jalen Hurts threw for 387 yards against the Chiefs last week. But perhaps the biggest reason I’m on Buffalo is playoff revenge as it was Kansas City that prevented the Bills from playing in the Super Bowl last year in this very stadium. After taking on the likes of Houston, Washington, and Miami, how does Buffalo not look-ahead to this game?  But give the Bills credit. They took care of business against that trio with easy wins and covers. 62-points in last year’s playoff meeting and Mahomes has no choice but to keep flinging it.  Buffalo 12-3 ATS in their last 15 while KC is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 including 1-7 ATS at home.  The Chiefs are allowing 31.3 points and 438 yards per game. That makes them #30 in both categories.  NFL road underdogs coming off a home shutout are 6-0 ‘OVER’ the past five seasons.  Non-divisional teams coming off a spot laying -14 or more are 9-1 ‘OVER’ the last three seasons.  Buffalo was -17 last week.  Since 2014 we have seen seven matchups between teams that each scored 40 or more points in the previous week. The ‘OVER’ is 6-1 in those games. AFC short home chalk of less than four-points are 12-1 ‘OVER’ the past four seasons if the total is 52 or higher. Finally the Chiefs enter tonight have scored and allowed at least 24-points in their first four games. Those teams that have accomplished that over a four-game stretch are 8-1 ‘OVER’ since 2012.  I also played a 6 1/2-point teaser here of Buffalo +9 1/2 and ‘OVER’ 50. Analysis of 5* San Diego State -19 1/2 on Saturday:

The more I look at this game the more I like it. New Mexico is coming off a 38-10 pummeling to the Air Force in a game the Propellerheads had a 408-47 edge in rushing. The Force ran the ball 73 times and ran twice. Do you have any idea how fatiguing it is for a defense when you know the run is coming and simply can’t stop it? Talk about demoralizing. Now the Lobos play their 3rd road game in four weeks after losing at UTEP 20-13 in their last away game and getting destroyed 34-0 by Texas A&M.  The early wins against Houston Baptist and New Mexico State seem like an eternity ago for the Lobos, and even they were tainted considering they won turnovers 5-1 in those games.  But last week it was New Mexico that had butterfingers with three miscues.  San Diego State has ran for 281, 204, 271, and 248 yards in their four games this year but unlike Air Force, they can also pass the rock.  SD State is #18 in the nation in total defense allowing less than 290 total yards per game and I just don’t see how New Mexico scores much tonight.  New Mexico enters today 0-5 ATS this year and 0-14 straight-up on the road since game #5 of the 2018 season.  San Diego State had last week off and this is their 3rd consecutive home game.  San Diego State is 4-0 this year averaging 36.8 points per game with 17 starters back from last year.  This is a tough home team with a great defense and this squad held BYU and Zach Wilson to just three-points in the Mountain West title game at the conclusion of the 2019 season.  This is an ideal spot for the Aztecs. 

I think Texas A&M is really overrated and struggling to replace QB Kellen Mond.  The Aggies a couple of weeks ago had just 97-yards rushing against Colorado on 29 carries and last week couldn’t move the ball on Arkansas with just 272 total yards.  Their other games were against Kent and New Mexico. But after what I watched last week against the Razorbacks and scoring 10-points against Colorado it’s fairly evident the back-up quarterback, Zach Calzada, isn’t very good. He’s completing just 52.8% with a 4-3 ratio taking seven sacks.  Starting QB Haynes King is out with injury.  Miss State has one of the best rushing defenses in the country holding their last three opponents to 32 (NC State), 87 (Memphis), and 63 (LSU).  Obviously the Bulldogs have played a far-tougher schedule and don’t be misled by the 28-25 loss to LSU at home last week. Mississippi State had a 486-343 edge in total yards and QB Will Rogers is excellent completing 75 percent with an 11-2 ratio. He torched LSU last Saturday for 371 yards and three touchdowns (47-of-62).  Clearly Mississippi State has the superior QB.  The Bulldogs beat NC State 24-10 this year and in their 31-29 loss at Memphis the Bulldogs had a 419-159 edge in passing yards.  Rogers has 1,454 passing yards in four games.  Coming off two losses by two points and three-points, I think Mississippi State is in a very good spot here to pull the upset.

The only reason Washington beat Cal last week 31-24 is because the Golden Bears committed three turnovers. Cal had over 450 total yards while the Huskies couldn’t crack the 100-yard rushing plateau. I think Washington might be overrated as they head to Oregon State last week. I watched the Beavers last week and it was no fluke what they did at USC. Total domination.  Oregon State has had three consecutive games in which they averaged well over 200-yards rushing and passing.  Washington QB Dylan Morris is only completing 57.8% with a 6-5 ratio taking nine sacks.  Maybe the tale-telling sign for Washington in the trenches is lead-rusher Richard Newton is only averaging 3.5-yards per carry and he missed the Cal game with injury. Beavers QB Chance Nolan made some sensational throws last week against USC and has a 9-2 ratio on the season completing 72.3%.  RB B.J. Baylor is averaging over 100-yards a game at 6.9 a carry.  Nolan can also run and is elusive at 7.2 a carry.  He spreads the wealth too with seven receives averaging double-digits.  Coach Jonathan Smith has 19 starters returning this year in Corvallis and they only lost at Washington last year 27-21. Quite a difference here in the running game with Oregon State at + 2.7 yards per carry than their opponents while Washington is at -1.2 yards a pop versus their foes.  Oregon State is averaging over 100 total yards more than the opposition and consider this: Eight of their last nine defeats for Oregon State has seen the Beavers trail by one score in the 4th quarter.  Oregon State had 322 rushing yards at USC last week on 51 carries.  Michigan had 343 yards on 52 carries against Washington earlier this year.  They have the better QB for sure and the Huskies come off an overtime win versus Cal.  I can’t get it out of my head that Washington lost to Montana and then the following week was out-rushed 343-50 in Ann Arbor before needing overtime to beat Cal at home? This team is overrated. 

Analysis of 4* Baylor +4 1/2, 4* ‘UNDER’ 159, and 3* Baylor +175 ML on 4/5/2021

On Saturday it looked like night and day defensively between these two teams. Baylor was in the face of every Houston Cougar and played smothering defense throughout. Gonzaga allowed UCLA countless wide-open shots and the Bruins, who hit 44 percent from the field throughout their first five games in the dance (nice sample size) would shoot 57.6% against the Zags.  Of course you could also say UCLA played out of their minds on Saturday and still lost!  It’s been a span of eight games since anybody shot better than 48 percent against Baylor. It’s been a span of six games since Baylor lost the turnover war and is +43 in that span.  That’s incredible.  Gonzaga is the #1 scoring team in the country averaging 91.6 points per game.  Baylor has yielded 63 or less in 4/5 NCAA Tournament games so far.  The problem for Gonzaga is while there’s a huge disparity on defense, Baylor is also the #3 scoring team in the nation and #1 in three-point shooting hitting at a 41 percent team clip, which is phenomenal.  Gonzaga was #59 in three-point shooting and were only 7-of-21 on Saturday.  They were only 12-of-20 from the free-throw shooting line. I kind of equate Saturday’s UCLA/Gonzaga game to a great heavyweight fight. Both teams threw everything they had and it certainly will go down as one of the greatest games/fights ever.  But could Gonzaga show some fatigue from that game?  Coach Few has been here before but he’s never won and I thought about that often on Saturday when the Zags barely beat a #11 seed.  Baylor seems a little more battle-tested and fresher right now, especially on the defensive end.  I was blown away how effective Baylor was on both ends of the floor against a very good Houston squad, who entered #2 in the country in points allowed this year behind Loyola-Illinois.  The Bears don’t beat themselves either with turnovers. They’ve had just 28 turnovers combined in their last four games.  Over the same span, Gonzaga’s had 45 miscues.  I think it’s a very bad sign for Gonzaga to struggle with a #11 seed as a 14-point favorite. I’ll grab the points with Baylor, who I think is more than capable of winning outright.  But again college kids have played so inconsistently throughout the season this year because of distractions so anything is possible. Remember UCLA went from a 51-49 ugly win hitting 38.9% against Michigan to hit 57.6% and score 81-points in regulation against the #1 team in the nation.  That still makes zero sense to be.  FYI: Tonight is the first time Baylor has been an underdog this season. Their cheapest price was -3 1/2 @ West Virginia.  On Saturday Baylor scored the most points against Houston in one half this year (45) and held the Cougars to the fewest in one half (20). 

In terms of the total, I doubt Gonzaga shoots anywhere near the 58.7 percent they made from the field against UCLA.  But at the same time, Coach Few has to know his team has to tighten up defensively to beat Baylor. The Zags, in my opinion, were lazy on Saturday night defensively giving the Bruins way too many wide-open looks.  There were 130 teams in the NCAA that scored more points than the Bruins did this year on a per-game average.  That’s hard to fathom if you watched the Final Four.  There were times of the game I swear that neither team could miss and the Bruins seemed to either convert with a made field goal or get fouled virtually every time down the court in the 2nd half.  Gonzaga has to be taking the mindset they have to play better defense tonight and good teams usually do following an embarrassing effort defensively.  Baylor also shot lights out against Houston and let’s not forget the Cougars were #2 in the nation allowing 58.2 points per game behind Loyola-Chicago.  There are currently 137 teams in the country that play better defense than Gonzaga in terms of points per game.  48 for Baylor.  That’s kind of shocking for the #1 team in the nation and considering the amount of feeble opponents they play in the Big West twice this year.  I’m going ‘UNDER’ this total.  Obviously this number was going to be inflated after watching Gonzaga and UCLA and the way Baylor performed offensively against Houston.  But both teams have to averaged 40-points per half for this game to go ‘OVER’ providing no overtime. That’s a ton.  Plus it’s not like Gonzaga tries to beat you with non-stop three-point shooting. Baylor looks awfully quick to get beat off the dribble.  Championship game totals are always set high.  I’ll go low.  I just can’t see both of these teams hitting 53 percent or better and that’s what it will take to get ‘OVER’ 159. 

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Kudos to 10* Totals Club hitting 10* on Northern Ky ‘OVER’ 129 on  Tuesday

10* Totals Club now 42-25 w/ all NCAA Totals. 4-1 last five rated 10

Analysis of 5* Duquesne +6 on the buy Tuesday:

In their last eight games since January 26th, Duquesne has only lost one game by more than three points and that was to mighty Dayton by 10 on the road.  The Dukes are 20-8 overall, 10-5 on the road, and 10-6 in league play. This has been their best season in a number of years. They take on VCU who has lost outright in 5/6 and really struggling offensively failing to exceed 62-points in 4/5.  I can’t say with any conviction the Dukes are a defensive juggernaut but they can score producing 67 or more in 8/9 and reaching the 80-point plateau in four of them.  VCU has been a solid go-against all season with a 10-19 spread ledger and 3-12 ATS on the season after playing one or more consecutive ‘UNDERS’.  I think the Dukes stay competitive tonight. What’s remarkable about VCU is they only have one healthy double-digit scorer in forward Marcus Santos-Silva at 12.4 points per game. 2nd-leading scorer, guard De’Riante Jenkins at 10.7 per game, is out indefinitely with ‘personal’ reasons.  Third-leading scorer, guard Marcus Evans at 9.9 a game, is out with a knee injury he sustained on 2/24.  Duquesne has five starters that average between 14-4 and 9.0 points per game and all are healthy including a senior and three juniors.  Duquesne has already had a nice 82-68 road win at St. Louis, where VCU lost on 2/21 by a 80-62 count.  The Rams are struggling without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers and without many options offensively. I feel like I have the better team catching points and love the idea of +6 on the buy.  Analysis of 4 1/2* Arkansas ‘OVER’ 154 1/2 on Wednesday:

I can’t imagine seeing any defense tonight for LSU and Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are an incredible 12-1 ‘OVER’ in their last 13 games. I projected this total to be in the low 160’s so there is some value.  LSU had a 7-game ‘OVER’ streak snapped by lackadaisical Texas A&M in their last game.  But consider this: The last meeting between these two teams produced a 79-77 final and LSU shot only 40.9 percent from the floor including 4-of-15 from beyond the arc (26%) and missed seven free throws (21-of-28).  In the prior two meetings before that the final scores were 90-89 and 94-88.  Arkansas is 6-0 ‘OVER’ off a road loss and got beat at Georgia on Saturday.  The Hogs are 9-0 ‘OVER’ this season revenging a loss in which they scored 75 or more points.  LSU 11-2 ‘OVER’ on the road this season plus 22-10 ‘OVER’ in the role of an underdog the past three years.

Maingate Group now 26-11 w/ 25* or higher since Auburn beat Alabama on November 30th 

16-3 Football/10-8 NCAA Hoops w/ all 25* or higher since 11/30  

Animal 38-21-1 NCAA Majors last 40 days in 2019 (see list below)

Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game in 2018

Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 7 years

Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018 on MC.

Maingate 21-0-1 from March 7th thru NCAA Title game 25*/15* plays in 2018!  

Maingate Group 10-8 so far in NCAA Hoop 25* plays

Since November 30th when Maingate had 35* Auburn over Alabama as Game of the Year now 16-3 w/ 35* and 25* plays and 10-8 w/ NCAA Hoop 25* plays

1/19:  25* SF 49ers -8…..37-20….. WIN

1/12:  25* Green Bay -4…..28-23…..WIN

1/5:    25* Seattle/Philly ‘UNDER’ 45….17-9….WIN

1/4:    25* New England ‘OVER’ 45….21-13….LOSS

1/1:    25* Baylor +4 1/2….14-26…..LOSS

12/29: 25* SF 49ers -3….26-21….WIN

12/28: 25* Clemson -2 1/2….29-23…WIN

12/27: 25* Air Force -2 1/2….31-21….WIN

12/24: 25* BYU -2…34-38….LOSS

12/22: 25* KC -6……26-3….WIN

12/21: 25* SF/Rams ‘OVER’ 45….34-31….WIN

12/15:  25* Vikings/Chargers ‘OVER’ 45….39-10….WIN

12/14:  25* Kansas -23…NCAA Hoops..98-57…WIN

12/12:  25* Baltimore ‘OVER’ 23 1st half…21-7 @ half….WIN

12/11:  25* LA Chargers -3….45-10…..WIN

12/10:  35* Clemson -28 1/2…62-17….WIN

12/2:    25* Seattle -2 1/2…37-30….WIN

12/1:    25* Houston Texans +3 1/2……28-22…..WIN

11/30:  35* Auburn +3 1/2..48-45…WIN

Remember guys, Maingate Group is the service that hit 21 straight in March Madness two years ago

10* Totals Club now 12-5 last 17 rated w/ LSU/Clemson ‘OVER’ in title game

2/2:      10* SF/KC ‘OVER’ 53……..31-20…..LOSS

1/13:   10* Clemson/LSU ‘OVER’ 65 1/2…..42-25….WIN

1/2:     10* Cincinnati/BC ‘OVER’ 53….38-6….LOSS

12/29: 10* New England/Miami ‘OVER’ 45….27-24….WIN

12/28: 10* LSU/Okla ‘OVER’ 76….63-28….WIN

12/26: 10* Pittsburgh Univ ‘OVER’ 49….34-30….WIN

12/22: 10* Baltimore ‘OVER’ 49.  31-15….LOSS

12/21: 10* New England ‘OVER’ 37…24-17…34-31….WIN

12/16: 10* New Orleans ‘OVER’ 48 1/2….34-7…LOSS

12/15: 10* Pittsburgh ‘UNDER’ 37…..17-10….WIN

12/8:   10* New England ‘UNDER’ 49….23-16…..WIN

12/7:   10* Clemson ‘OVER’ 56….62-17….WIN

12/6:   10* Oregon ‘OVER’ 45 1/2….37-15….WIN

12/1:   10* NY Jets ‘OVER’ 42 1/2….22-6….LOSS

11/30:  10* Wyoming ‘UNDER’ 41 1/2…..17-7….WIN

11/29:  10* Buffalo Univ ‘OVER’ 53 1/2….49-30….WIN

11/28:  10* Dallas ‘UNDER’ 47…..26-15….WIN

Animal 38-21-1 last 40 Days w/ NCAA Majors missing Texas Tech in OT Monday

4/8: 4* Texas Tech +1 1/2  Loss

4/6: 5* Auburn/UVA ‘OVER’ 132  Loss

4/5: 4* Liscomb +2  Loss

4/2: 4* Lipscomb -1  WIN

3/31: 4* Ky ‘OVER’ 142 1/2  WIN

3/30: 4* Gonzaga ‘OVER’ 136 1/2  WIN

3/29: 4* Duke ‘OVER’ 143  WIN

3/29: 4 1/2* UNC -5 1/2  Loss

3/28: 4* Oregon +8 1/2  WIN

3/26: 4 1/2* Wichita State +4 1/2 WIN

3/25: 4* West Va -10  Loss

3/24: 4* Houston -6  WIN

3/23 4 1/2* Villanova +3 1/2  Loss

3/23: 4* Kentucky -5  WIN

3/22: 4 1/2* Wisconsin ‘OVER’ 116 1/2  WIN

3/21: 4* Gonzaga ‘OVER’ 152  Loss

3/21: 4* Belmont +3  WIN

3/21: 4* Auburn -5 1/2  Loss

3/20: 4* Alabama ‘UNDER’ 144  Loss thanks to OT

3/19: 4 1/2* Hofstra +9  WIN

3/19: 4* Belmont -3  WIN

3/17: 4 1/2* Auburn/Tenn ‘OVER’ 144:  WIN

3/16: 4 1/2* Wichita State +5 1/2  WIN

3/16: 4* Kentucky -1 1/2  Lose

3/15: 4* Xavier +7 1/2  WIN

3/15: 4* South Carolina +8 Loss by 9

3/15: 4* St Bonaventure ‘UNDER’ 130  WIN

3/14: 4* Wichita State -11  WIN

3/14: 4* Duquesne +2  Loss

3/14: 4* Fla State +1  WIN

3/13: 4* Texas A&M -3 1/2  WIN

3/13: 4* Air Force -11  WIN

3/12: 4 1/2* Gonzaga -8 1st half/-14 game (split action).  Loss

3/12: 4* Georgia Tech +2  Loss

3/11: 4* Hofstra ‘OVER’ 147  WIN

3/11: 4* Hofstra -10 1/2 Loss

3/10: 4* Penn State -8  WIN

3/9: 4* Washington -2 in the 1st half.  Loss

3/9: 4 1/2* Ky ‘OVER’ 128.  Loss

3/9: 4* Boston College +3 1/2 Loss

3/8: 4* Drake ‘UNDER’ 140. Push.  86 in 2nd half after 54 in 1st half

3/7: 4 1/2* Houston -12 1/2  Loss by 1.5 points

3/6: 4* Clemson ‘UNDER’ 133 WIN

3/6: 4* Dayton -6 1/2 1st half  WIN

3/5:  4* Miami Ohio/Kent ‘UNDER’ 144 WIN

3/5: 4* Wisconsin-Green Bay -3  WIN

3/3: 4* Texas Tech -4 1/2 1st half  WIN

3/2: 4 1/2* South Florida +4  WIN

3/2: 4* Stanford +1 1/2  WIN

3/1: 4 1/2* Penn State +6 1/2  WIN

3/1: 4* Houston ‘OVER’ 133 1/2  Lose by 1/2-point

3/1: 4* Utah State +1 WIN

2/27: 4* Towson State +3  WIN

2/26: 4* Northern Iowa +1 1/2  WIN

2/26: 4* Nevada ‘OVER’ 152 1/2  WIN

The Animal has flat out owned Super Bowls:

Animal 13-3 the last eight years w/ Super Bowl sides & totals.

Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game

Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 3 years

Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018.   

Modified Consensus is flat out scary w/ Big plays in RED:

158-103 Hoops as of 2/27/2019

Bowl Service Plays in RED finish 33-16 on season w/ 10* Totals Club hitting 10* on Clemson ‘OVER’

December 31st, 2018.  A day that will live in infamy in the Consensus Biz!

Service plays in RED finish 16-6 on New Years Eve & New Years Day combined.  That’s 33-16 in all Bowls in RED this postseason! 

& what a football season J.J. is having.  86-48 in NCAA Football including 10-4 in Bowls!  

HOOPS, HOOPS, HOOPS 2018 recap:

Maingate 21-0-1 from March 7th thru NCAA Title game 25*/15* plays

Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game

Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 3 years

Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018

Any questions contact Mark @ [email protected]

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Analysis of Warriors -4 in NBA finale:

I didn’t want to lay double-digits with Golden State in the first two games and split.  Then in game #3 my gut told me not to trust the Cavaliers over four quarters and use them early. Unfortunately they miraculously blew an eight-point lead with two minutes to go in the first quarter @ -1 and the end result was a push and naturally covered the first half. As a buddy who is an on-line oddsmaker said “it’s amazing how much respect a home team gets when trailing 2-0” referring to the fact the Cavs were actually favored in the first quarter and pick’em in the first half in game #3 despite being an underdog in the game of more than three-points.  Needless to say, quite unusual, and only in the playoffs. Now another strange intangible tonight.  For the first time in this series the two teams play with just one day off so depth may play a factor and the return of Andre Iguodala to the lineup is obviously huge.  In addition I thought Cleveland wasted terrific games by Kevin Love and Rodney Hood, although despite his scoring, Hood was -12 when in the game (worst on the team). LeBron spoke yesterday about the IQ of Golden State and I would concur. Having a guy like Iguodala back makes a significant impact. He was +14 in game #3.  Golden State won by eight points despite Curry and Thompson a combined 7-of-27 for 25.9 percent.  I doubt that happens again.  LeBron did everything he could do to get others involved and I thought he had terrific help in game #3. But it still didn’t matter.  Now Golden State is a game away from accomplishing something unique in this rivalry: a four-game sweep in the finals.  That should be incentive tonight and Durant sure did have that look in his eye of an assassin ready to finish the job.  I figured if the Cavaliers had any fight left it would have showed up in game #3 and it did for all but the final two minutes before talent prevailed as usual.  I wonder how many Cavaliers tonight really want to extend this series and travel back to the bay area for a game #5. LeBron played all but 70 seconds of game #3.  How fatigued must he be playing on one day of rest with his three-point shot abandoning his arsenal on Wednesday night. Curry hit nine three-pointers in game #2 and then was 1-for-10 from beyond the arc two nights ago. Yet the Warriors still beat the Cavaliers for the 10th time in the last 11 meetings.  I know Cleveland is 7-2 in elimination games since 2015 and that includes three wins in these playoffs. Last year Cleveland forced a fifth game in this exact same scenario and hit 24 three-point shots in game #4.  Golden State will undoubtedly be a double-digit favorite in game #5 should it be necessary and since I have yet to take them this series, I’ll back them tonight at this discounted price and figure while it won’t be easy, talent should once again prevail in the end.  I caught -4 at 5dimes.com.

Last 3 years Animal NCAA Hoop BEST BETS rated 5* or 4 1/2* are 61-34 ATS 

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Excellent start guys and we’ve added 5 newcomers to the panel that are paying off tremendous dividends. Dr B and Fez for both NFL and NCAA. P Stone for NCAA.  W Sharp and Teddy C for NFL.  NFL Premium Plays off to a fast start and Wildcat and 10* Totals Club have been especially sharp.  Neri is simply sensational with the 4* moves to date.  

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2022 Modified Consensus-FOOTALL..it’s here!

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